增信服务还是腐蚀效应:论金融科技等新兴产业发展过程中的风险信号

提出行业性风险暴发的"腐蚀效应"理论,即存在着一种特殊的行业风险暴发过程:行业中各个企业的倒闭是沿着企业的资质链从低到高的顺序发生的.该过程的存在得到了数据回归证实.对于科技金融等新兴行业,警惕和积极防范腐蚀效应,对防范行业性风险具有重要意义.对于客户信任高度依赖的新兴行业,如金融科技等,最容易出现腐蚀效应.因此,在一度高速膨胀的网络贷款领域出现腐蚀效应具有一定必然性."腐蚀效应"的存在也否定了当前把网络贷款行业大面积爆雷的原因归咎于其开展"增信服务"的普遍观点,真正引发风险的原因是网络贷款行业中的企业资质参差不齐和无序竞争造成的无谓成本的大幅增加.从政府对行业的管理视角来看,在促进行业发展时不忘记防范风险十分重要.这在实质上是对制度-制度接口的设计问题.因此应当以制度设计理论来指导防范风险政策的制定,才能取得更好的效果.     

The capital market spillover effect of product market advertising: Evidence from stock price synchronicity

We analyze whether product market advertising has a spillover effect on stock price synchronicity by transmitting firm-specific information to the capital market and attracting more investor attention. Using a sample of Chinese listed firms from 2009 to 2017, we find that firms with greater advertising expenditures have lower stock price synchronicity. The results are robust after we address endogeneity concerns. In accord with our hypothesis that product market advertising increases the amount of firm-level information capitalized into stock prices through the information channel, we find that the impact of advertising on synchronicity is more pronounced for firms with a higher degree of information asymmetry and firms in the consumer-product industry. Further tests show that product market advertising enhances the ability of current period returns to reflect future earnings, and thus rules out that the negative relationship between advertising and synchronicity is driven by noise trading. Our results imply that product market advertising plays an informative role and improves information efficiency in a capital market.     

The effect of alcohol consumption and contextual cues on the evaluation of new brands of alcoholic beverages at the POS

As per ELM, consumers' motivation and ability influence the route through which they process new information. A higher magnitude of these two factors leads to systematic information processing whereas a lower level leads to peripheral information processing. This research manipulated consumers' motivation by varying the contextual cues like bundle partner's brand image and functional relationship between the items whereas their ability was manipulated by alcohol administration to test its impact on the quality perception of a new brand of alcoholic beverage and the purchase intention of the bundle. A lower magnitude of motivation and ability increases the chances of adopting a categorisation approach to evaluate the new brand, and subsequently, the entire bundle. Therefore, a bundle's contextual cues dictate the evaluation of the new brand. Additionally, the alcohol priming effect leads to a greater propensity to try new brands of alcoholic beverages even if their quality is perceived to be inferior.     

铬掺杂对硅酸铁锂电学性能影响的计算机仿真研究

硅酸铁锂是一种锂离子电子的正极材料,由于其晶胞在理论上可允许可逆脱嵌两个锂原子,使得其理论比容量有巨大的提升空间,加上原料易得、无污染及成本低的优势,受到了人们的重视。正极材料掺杂被认为是改善其导电性能的有效途径。论文通过运用基于第一性原理方法的计算机仿真技术,对铬掺杂硅酸铁锂的结构和导电性能的影响进行了计算机仿真研究,结果表明未掺杂的硅酸铁锂其带隙快读为2.44eV,掺杂铬之后硅酸铁锂带隙减小为2.31eV,表明铬掺杂可提高硅酸铁锂的导电性能。     

医疗器械产业创新集群的现状及路径研究——以宁波市为例

产业集群能提高企业、区域和国家竞争力。当前以产业创新集群为代表的新一轮产业集群正在各地兴起。通过行业融合、知识外溢和集体行动，产业创新集群促进相关企业和支持性机构紧密互动而加速创新。医疗器械产业科技含量高，创新性强，是当前少数几个涉及学科最多的产业之一。以医疗器械产业为研究对象，从集群和区域创新发展的要义出发，挑选宁波地区的医疗器械行业，测算其行业集中度和产业集群效应，提出提升医疗器械行业集群度，激发产业创新集群活力的对策建议。     

Contagion effects and risk transmission channels in the housing,stock, interest rate and currency markets: An Empirical Study in China and the U.S.

This paper aims to investigate the crisis linkage and transmission channels within the housing, stock, interest rate and the currency markets in the U.S. and China in the past decade since the 2008 Subprime Mortgage Crisis. Two hybrid models, namely the SWARCH-EVT-Copula and the Bivariate SWARCH-EVT models, are proposed and applied in order to take into account (A) the high/low volatility regimes, (B) the interdependence structure inherited from the joint tail behaviours, as well as, (C) the risk spillover dynamics among financial sectors during market turmoils. We empirically show that the housing and stock markets share the strongest linkage and play central roles in the spreading of shocks. With a highly integrated system, the American financial sectors are under greater exposure to risk contagion and systemic risk during crises than the Chinese markets. Nevertheless, the exchange rate risk of Renminbi remains at an intensive level since its “crawl-like arrangement” and leads to increasing co-movements in the stock and interest rate markets since 2014.     

社会资本能否抑制僵尸企业的创新挤出效应？——基于制造业上市公司的经验证据

以制造业上市公司为样本，探讨社会资本能否抑制僵尸企业对健康企业创新的挤出效应。结果显示：僵尸企业每增加1%，健康企业的发明专利数降低0.41%。僵尸企业的创新挤出效应大部分由非国有企业承担，国有企业的创新并未受到影响。健康企业通过积累不同类型的社会资本来抑制僵尸企业对其创新造成的挤出效应。非国有健康企业的连结型社会资本对创新挤出效应的抑制作用最强，结合型社会资本的作用次之，桥接型社会资本的作用最小。     

Relative age effects in political selection

We exploit a regression discontinuity design to provide causal evidence of the relative age effect (RAE) on a long-run adult age outcome: Political selection. We find strong evidence of the RAE in politics in Finland. However, the effect is heterogeneous: We find that male candidates born early in the calendar year have a significantly higher probability of getting elected to the parliament but no similar RAE applies to female candidates nor to municipal elections. Moreover, this effect only takes place in the most competitive parliamentary districts and is present only for some parties. We also find that in all the groups where the RAE does not exist, early-born candidates are under-represented suggesting attrition of talent in the candidate placement. Overall, our results show that seemingly artificial cutoffs imposed by the government have persistent consequences even on the selection to the highest positions of power within a society.     

Aid,collective action and benefits to smallholders: Evaluating the World Food Program's purchase for progress pilot

Agricultural commodity markets in developing countries often operate in a constrained environment of prohibitive transaction costs. Consequently, smallholder farmers are only partly integrated into these markets, a situation that keeps them in a lower level of development equilibrium (poverty trap). Although cooperative institutional alternatives such as Farmers’ Organizations (FOs) may reduce transaction costs and revitalize agricultural production and commercialization, they rarely have been successful in fully delivering on these promises. Against this backdrop, the World Food Programmed (WFP) has recently implemented a multi-year and multi-country pilot to increase smallholder participation in commodity markets. The projects involved investing in physical and human capacities of Farmer Organizations (FOs) to aggregate commodities and add value, as well as locally purchasing food aid from the same. The combination of interventions was expected to increase the relative price of agricultural products, particularly staple crops. In this study, using Ethiopian panel survey data, we estimated the causal income and investment effects of the Ethiopian P4P intervention among smallholders. Using an entropy balancing (EB) model and semi-parametric difference-in-difference (DID) model, we show that the P4P intervention has increased per capita consumption by smallholders. Our additional analysis confirms that this effect is heterogeneous owing to elite capture within Farmer Organizations. We also find evidence of increased food consumption scores, increased investments in child schooling, and increased asset holding among program-participating smallholders relative to comparison farmers. Policy implications are discussed.     

Spatial and operational factors behind passenger yield of U.S. nonhub primary airports

Nonhub airports are an essential component in the National Plan of Integrated Airport Systems (NPIAS) of the United States in that they connect regional towns and small communities to the air transportation network. Understanding the interplay of operational and spatial factors in determining average passenger yield of nonhub airports provides airlines with valuable information for network planning and revenue management. This study examines factors contributing to the yield variation among nonhub airports in the U.S. Using ordinary least squares (OLS) based econometric models, this study captures the spatial dependence of passenger yield of nonhub airports, which tends to increase with a corresponding increase in distance to the nearest large hub airport. Nonhub airports surrounding large hub airports with higher passenger enplanements and higher average yields also have higher yields than other nonhub airports. In addition, this study finds the effect of Allegiant Airlines in lowering the average passenger yield of the nonhub airports served directly by the airline, which can be termed as ‘Allegiant Effect’. Findings of this study could provide valuable guidance for airlines to analyze network planning strategies and to identify future markets for growth and for policymakers when allocating resources to communities relying on these nonhub airports.